Wednesday, October 31, 2007 -- THE WEATHER IN BRIEF.

By John Coleman

Late this week the wind will turn "off shore" again. The event will be a Sosa, NOT a Santa Ana. Top winds in the mountain canyons will gust up to 30 mph, not 60 or 80 mph and the difference is very important; nice weather instead of the threat of another round of wild fires.

I invented the word Sosa after the Cedar Fire in 2004. I knew people would be un-nerved if I predicted another Santa Ana, even a weak one. So I came up with Sosa as a name for weak Santa Ana events, the sort of situation that is not nearly as dangerous; where the threat of wind damage and wildfire is remote.

I am certain, the event Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be a Sosa, Not a Santa Ana.

Meanwhile, cooler weather with morning cloudiness is expect to continue Thursday and into Friday morning.

Otherwise, the weather should be nice; not as warm as it has been, a bit more humid and generally very pleasant.

Here is the detailed forecast for San Diego for the next seven days, issued National Weather Service Wednesday afternoon:

Tonight: Patchy dense fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 51. West wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Patchy dense fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night: Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Monday: Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 76.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

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Now the scoreboard for 2007:

Great days 71

Good days 123

Average Days 43

Poor days 46

Awful days 20

Wednesday; a Good day. Nothing special but no complaints.

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WEATHER QUESTION FOR 10-31-2007

QUESTION:

NOVEMBER NORMALLY HAS MORE ___________ THAN ANY OTHER MONTH.

CHOICES:

A. SANTA ANA WINDS

B. FOGGY MORNINGS

C. SUNSHINE

D. RAINY DAYS

THE CORRECT ANSWER IS.

C. SUNSHINE

SANTA ANA WINDS USUALLY DIMINISH IN NOVEMBER. WE USUALLY HAVE MORE FOG IN SEPTEMBER.

JANUARY HAS THE MOST RAINY DAYS, 7.

BUT IN THE NORMAL NOVEMBER SAN DIEGO ENJOYS 74% OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE WITH 15 TOTALLY SUNNY DAYS, 7 PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS, 8 CLOUDY DAYS AND ONLY 5 DAYS OF RAIN.

THE LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODEL PREDICTS NO RAIN IN SAN DIEGO THROUGH AT LEAST NOVEMBER 17TH.

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COMMENTS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

By John Coleman

The frenzy about global warming is wildly exaggerated. The constant hype borders on ridiculous.

Global warming is about science; the science of meteorology. It is not an environmental issue or a political point of view. It is not something you "believe in". It is either a scientific fact or it isn't. And, after reading dozens of scientific papers on the topic I am absolutely convinced that there is no global warming crisis.

I am a member of ICECAP.US, a website that posts materials that refute the global warming hype.

Here is what I have to say about Global Warming and Wildfires and Hurricanes, Droughts and Heat waves:

Whatever happens, they blame in on Global Warming. A group of scientists with extreme political and/or environmental agendas has linked the recent wildfires with global warming. They don't have any real scientific proof; they haven't done any detailed, peer reviewed research. They simply link it all together based on their version of how things work.

Similarly scientists in the Spring predicted a super bad hurricane season with a bevy of major hurricanes and linked the coming Armageddon with global warming. The hurricanes didn't happen. The activist scientists haven't apologized, taken back or explained their error.

The same scientists are busy linking droughts and hot spells and tornado outbreaks to global warming.

If you listen to them, if it weren't for global warming, the world would be tranquil with no weather extremes.

Such nonsense.

First of all, there is precious little if any global warming. Temperatures, on average, world wide have increased perhaps as much as a degree in the last 100 years. And, even that increase is based on questionable science.

Second of all, any link between this minor warmup and human pollution, particularly carbon dioxide has not been proven. Efforts to link warming with CO2 have been proven to be invalid.

In fact, no one has successfully separated the influence of man's activities and nature variations in any changes in the climate.

This doesn't mean that protecting our environment, cleaning our air and water and working to eliminate polluting engines and power systems are not high priority goals of merit.

Fossil fuel and internal combustion engines need to replaced by cleaner power sources as soon as possible. Oil and coal fired power generating needs to phased out as we make solar and wind power generation practical and effective.

Desalination of ocean water needs to be a high priority as well. Reforestation and preservation of wild lands and endangered species are all environmental goals of merit.

But, manufacturing a huge frenzy and scare about highly questionable global warming is a distortion of science and plain dishonest.

I have read dozens of papers and articles and dissertations about climate change. I have concluded, that any climate change underway is not a crisis, the sky is not falling. And, natural cycles and drifts in climate are as much if not more responsible for any climate changes underway.

I strongly believe that the next twenty years are equally as likely to see a cooling trend as they are to see a warming trend.

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The Canadian Broadcasting Company's Cable News Network produced an excellent documentary on Global Warming. It is titled " Doomsday Called Off ". Here are the Youtube URLs to watch it in five parts:

Part 1

http:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr5O1HsTVgA

Part 2:

http:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=fD6VBLlWmCI

Part 3:

http:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZS2eIRkcR0

Part 4:

http:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIbTJ6mhCqk

Part 5:

http:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2XALmrq3ro

Some people may want to see the research behind my dismissive attitude about Global Warming. If you want to wade through scientific jargon, here are some relevant websites.

Http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/WegmanReport.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/NRCreport.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/NAS.M&M.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/McKitrick-hockeystick.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/MM03.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/Climate_L.pdf

http:/www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/MM-W05-background.pdf