Data expert Justin Hart explains how false positives will block reopening advancement
SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Many residents are finding it challenging to navigate Governor Newsom’s new state reopening guidelines.
Data expert Justin Hart analyzed the “simple” rates at which San Diego County must achieve to continue reopening the economy and found it to be mathematically impossible to achieve.
Hart explained his findings tweeting, “If we assume 8% infection rate here in San Diego County. With 98% specificity and 99% sensitivity… If we test just 1650 people that will yield 33 false positives right there. We will never make it to the lowest setting and businesses will be closed for good.”
Now, health officials have revealed a discrepancy in the way positive cases are being counted. Critics are concerned that the so-called discrepancy is just a way for the state government to control what phase of the color-coded guidelines each county may be in.
Data expert Justin Hart has been following the coronavirus data closely, and has a problem with the way positive cases are being used as reasoning to keep the economy closed.
Hart proved that mandatory mask use is ineffective saying, “the virus is going to do, what the virus is going to do. If only we had spent all that energy to protect the most vulnerable communities among us, which are really longterm nursing homes and the elderly who have comorbidities, we would have been in such a better place.”
Hart also explained how we unfairly get dinged for cases that arise across our Southern border, in Mexico.
Hart discussed his issues with the coronavirus testing and strategy in detail with KUSI’s Lauren Phinney on Good Morning San Diego.