Data expert Justin Hart finds Newsom’s COVID-19 guidelines to be mathematically impossible

SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Friday a new process for reopening businesses that is slower and more gradual than what the state tried earlier this summer amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The new guidelines are the latest example of Newsom moving the goalposts and adding additional information for California counties to adhere to in order to get their economies back open amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Wilma Wooten, the county’s public health officer said San Diego County had made it to “tier 2,” the only county in Southern California to earn that designation. The county still has a “substantial” COVID-19 presence, but unlike Orange, Riverside, Los Angeles and Imperial counties it is not considered “widespread.”

The county reported 285 new COVID-19 cases and three deaths Friday, raising the region’s totals to 37,784 cases and 676 deaths.

Of the 8,821 tests reported, 3% returned positive, lowering the 14-day rolling average of positive tests to 3.6%, well below the state’s 8% guideline. The seven-day average number of tests performed in the county is 7,268.

The two metrics the state was monitoring in that tier list include an old one — the percentage of positive tests — and a new one — the number of daily new cases per 100,000 people. San Diego County is at 3.8% and 5.8 per 100,000 respectively. To make it to the next tier, the county must show rates of between 2% and 4.9% positive tests and between 1 and 3.9 new daily cases per 100,000 population.

According to Wooten, there is a 21-day mandatory wait time before any county can move between tiers, and a county must meet the metrics for the next tier for two straight weeks. Also, a county may only move one tier at a time.

Data expert Justin Hart has been analyzing the COVID-19 numbers throughout the pandemic, and has been a longtime advocate of getting life back to normal because most people don’t have too much to worry about.

Once Governor Newsom published the newest, color-coded guidelines, Hart ran the numbers and found it will be impossible for San Diego County to make it to the lowest setting.

Hart explained his findings tweeting, “If we assume 8% infection rate here in San Diego County. With 98% specificity and 99% sensitivity… If we test just 1650 people that will yield 33 false positives right there. We will never make it to the lowest setting and businesses will be closed for good.”

Justin Hart will discuss the problems and unattainable goals laid out by Governor Newsom on Friday’s KUSI News broadcast.

RELATED STORY: Governor Newsom announces more guidelines for counties to begin reopening process

Categories: California News, Coronavirus, Good Evening San Diego, Health