New poll shows Faulconer sweeping primary elections

SAN DIEGO (KUSI) — A new poll on the mayor’s race said Mayor Kevin Faulconer is within the margin of error of winning the election outright in the June primary.

The poll was conducted by the Independent Voter Network, or IVN and targeted more than 600 registered voters on it’s Facebook page.

This is a rather unorthodox poll compared to traditional polling standards. Facebook’s demographic skews older, age 45 and above.

What IVN did was match registered voters on Facebook with voter files.

The voters were asked if the election were today, which mayoral candidate would you vote for?

The results showed Republican Mayor Kevin Faulconer at 48 percent, Independent candidate Lori Saldana at 26 percent, and Democrat Ed Harris at 20 percent.

When the candidates were identified by party, the results were virtually the same.

IVN chose this social media method of polling over the traditional phone survey where voters are questioned.

This methodology for polling is certainly unorthodox.,

"It’s an interesting poll but in terms of usefulness it doesn’t have that," said Vince Vasquez, a senior analyst at National University’s Institute for Police Research.

Vasquez said there has to be research to gauge whether this type of polling is useful.

" … has merit, has been published in academic journals and shows that in fact its something that holds up to academic rigor, this fails to meet that standard," Vasquez said.

Challenger Ed Harris also questions this poll, saying using Facebook is extremely unorthodox and it’s impossible to have zero undecided voters.

City elections have shown a heavy deference for the incumbent. The mayor is popular, and has an insurmountable lead in money.

Vasquez said it’s questionable whether Lori Saldana and Ed Harris can be competitive.

"Despite the fact we’re gonna have so many Hillary and Bernie voters showing up at the polls, we really don’t get a sense as to whether they have the resources to even communicate to those voters," Vasquez said. 

Vasquez also said the dynamics are present for the mayor to be re-elected outright in the primary.

"I would suspect that you would see Faulconer though probably winning something like 60 percent of the vote come June 7," he said.

Since January, there are 85 thousand new or re-registered voters in the city, many of whom are millennials, Bernie Sanders voters. 

Facebook skewing older doesn’t account for them.

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