Tom Del Beccaro: Approval numbers are a better election indicator than poll numbers
SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – President Donald Trump is entering the final four-month stretch before Election Day presiding over a country that faces a public health crisis, mass unemployment and a reckoning over racism. His Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, is raking in cash. And a series of national and battleground polls suggest growing obstacles to Trump’s reelection.
But the election is far from locked in.
Trump’s Gallup job approval rating stands at 39% this month, putting him in dangerous territory historically.
Since World War II, all incumbent presidents who lost were at 45% or lower in Gallup polls conducted in June of their reelection year. Only Harry Truman, at 40% in 1948, managed a comeback win. Trump’s ahead of one-term presidents Jimmy Carter (32% in 1980) and George H.W. Bush (37% in 1992). But he’s behind Obama’s 46% in 2012 and George W. Bush’s 49% in 2004.
Author and KUSI political contributor, Tom Del Beccaro, joined Good Morning San Diego to explain why approval numbers are a better election indicator than poll numbers.
Tom compared President Donald Trump’s approval numbers with President Barak Obama four months out from an election.